MD 1989 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS Mesoscale Discussion 1989 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026 Areas affected...Far northeast New Mexico...the Oklahoma Panhandle...and southwest Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 152025Z - 152300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The threat for severe storms capable of mainly severe wind gusts, potentially up to 70-80 mph, is expected to increase across the discussion area late this afternoon into evening. An additional watch is possible to the east/southeast of the recently issued severe thunderstorm watch 584 in effect across southeast Colorado. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed along the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and adjacent Raton Mesa with a deepening cumulus field noted along a warm front from southwest KS into the OK and TX Panhandles. The 18Z DDC and AMA soundings modified for current surface conditions exhibit steep environmental lapse rates (especially in the low levels) with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. Continued daytime heating should allow for further air mass destabilization with the strongest instability forecast north of the front from far southeast CO into southwest KS. Latest CAM guidance suggests the storms developing along the Sangre de Cristo Mountains will gradually grow upscale into one or multiple clusters later this afternoon into evening while moving/developing east into the High Plains. The recently issued severe thunderstorm watch 584 accounts for the large hail and severe wind gust potential with that regime. Additional storms will also be possible along the surface boundary from the northern TX into OK Panhandles and southwest KS, with some model signal for the separate regimes to merge across southwest KS this evening. Severe wind gusts, potentially up to 70-80 mph, appear to be the primary hazard with the latter regime, and convective trends are being monitored for an additional severe thunderstorm watch. ..Mead/Guyer.. 08/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 36960469 37880474 38370384 38200186 38200122 38129996 37479956 36959991 36690083 36550182 36520296 36530373 36700457 36960469 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

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