MD 2001 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS Mesoscale Discussion 2001 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026 Areas affected...central and southern Missouri into southwest Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 162011Z - 162215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The threat for severe storms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts is expected to increase across the area late this afternoon into evening. A severe thunderstorm watch is possible. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite and surface observations indicate a couple of boundaries remnant from earlier storms located over the region as of 20Z. Objective analysis shows, and visible satellite confirms residual capping over northeast and east-central MO into adjacent west-central and southwest IL. To the south of those areas over central and southern MO, temperatures have warmed to around 100 F with considerably more boundary-layer-based cumulus development, coincident with an uncapped environment with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg. That area resides to the south of the stronger forcing for ascent and associated, stronger mid-level flow related to an MCV moving along the IA-MO border. Variability exists across the latest CAM guidance and time-lagged ensembles in specific details regarding the preferred location(s) for storm development later this afternoon. In general, there is a signal for eventual upscale growth of initial more discrete storms into an MCS, which tracks into southern IL this evening. Given the presence of a hot, well-mixed boundary layer already in place across central and southern MO, the setup appears favorable for at least isolated damaging wind gusts with the most intense storms. A more concentrated area of damaging wind potential may materialize this evening should storms merge into an MCS along a coalescing cold pool. Convective trends are being monitored for a possible watch issuance. ..Mead/Guyer.. 08/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...EAX... LAT...LON 37769388 38189411 38729359 39219213 39219124 39339005 39088955 38198923 37698931 37078993 37019147 37179255 37429339 37769388 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

Full outlook from NOAA / Storm Prediction Center.

Source: NOAA / Storm Prediction Center. Factual summary of a public release; not financial advice.

AI-assisted report. Disclosed per Moondial News integrity policy.